Brent crude futures jumped 89 cents to $106.58 a barrel by 0030 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate gained 80 cents to $94.94. The spike followed a confirmed Houthi attack on an administrative building owned by Saudi Aramco in Dhahran. Saudi Arabia’s energy ministry reported a limited fire at the site.
But the geopolitics lurk just beneath the surface. President Donald Trump accused the Houthis on Truth Social of deliberately inflating prices to disrupt the US midterm elections. He claimed the group re-emerged at Iran’s behest and vowed not to forget the attacks after November. That threat looms large over the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian officials told Reuters they are deploying new tactics to target shipping and keep prices high.
Market analysts see a tug-of-war. Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment, told Reuters that supply concerns from the Houthi-Saudi conflict are the primary driver. Yet, rising Russian diesel exports to the US could cap upside potential. Russia stated Tuesday it sees no link between Ukraine peace talks and its diesel deal with Washington, despite reports that US envoys framed the deal as a lever to bring Moscow back to negotiations.
The stakes extend beyond crude. Saudi Arabia ramped up production last month despite US-Iran war disruptions, boosting OPEC+ output. Traders are now weighing these supply gains against the immediate risk of escalation. The next critical test arrives in November, when the US midterms determine if Republicans retain their House and Senate majorities—and whether Trump follows through on his military threats.