The Strait of Hormuz remains choked, yet the global oil market barely noticed. Kpler data shows 16.5 million barrels per day (mbd) of crude left the West Asian Gulf region between Sept 1 and 28. That figure matches the pre-war average exactly. It is a sharp reversal from March, when the peak of the conflict saw volumes drop to 10.5 mbd. The fix? Pipelines.
Before the war, 83% of the region’s crude squeezed through Hormuz. In September, that number fell to 40%. The rest took a different route. Saudi Arabia pushed crude through the East-West pipeline to Yanbu. Loadings there skyrocketed from 0.8 mbd pre-war to 4.3 mbd in June. The UAE mirrored this, sending oil via the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline to Fujairah. Loadings there jumped from 1.1 mbd to 2.7 mbd.
For the 60% of crude that still crossed Hormuz, the method changed. Emmanuel Belostrino, head of global crude and geopolitical market data at Kpler, noted that most used shuttle tankers. More than 70% of the crude crossing the strait in August changed tankers offshore in the Gulf of Oman. It’s a logistical dance to avoid detection and bottlenecks.
The physical crossings of Hormuz were still more than a quarter below pre-war levels. But the alternative routes more than doubled their volumes. This offset the loss almost perfectly. The International Energy Agency (IEA) added that member countries released 325 million barrels from strategic reserves. That is out of the 400 million barrels pledged in March. The safety net is thinning, but the flow holds.
The question now is sustainability. Can the Yanbu and Fujairah pipelines handle sustained high volumes without bottlenecks? And will the IEA continue to release reserves as prices firm up? The market is watching. For now, the lights stay on.