NEW DELHI — India’s total exports jumped 29.9 per cent year-on-year to hit $89.99 billion in October 2026, propelled by an unprecedented surge in outbound factory shipments that narrowed the country's overall trade gap.
Preliminary figures released Friday by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry showed total outbound trade climbing from $69.27 billion recorded in the same month last year. Total imports also expanded to $110.07 billion against $94.42 billion in October 2025. But export momentum easily eclipsed inbound growth. The overall trade deficit shrank to $20.09 billion, down from $25.15 billion twelve months earlier.
Goods shipments set the pace. Merchandise exports soared 45.06 per cent to $49.47 billion, up from $34.11 billion in October 2025. It marked a historic high-water mark for the nation's industrial order books.
India recorded its highest-ever monthly goods exports during the month.
Rajesh Agrawal, Trade Secretary
Yet the export boom carried a heavy import tab. Inbound merchandise shipments climbed to $89.35 billion from $76.69 billion a year ago and $74.61 billion in September. That pushed the standalone merchandise trade deficit to $39.88 billion — the widest monthly goods shortfall in a year.
Pressure mounted fast. The goods gap expanded sharply from the $30.21 billion logged in September, overshooting consensus trade forecasts that had pegged the deficit near $32.25 billion. In September, merchandise exports had stood at $44.40 billion.
Then came the software and professional services counterbalance.
Services exports reached an estimated $40.51 billion for October, climbing from $35.17 billion a year ago. Inbound services costs rose moderately to $20.72 billion from $17.73 billion, producing a robust net invisible surplus of nearly $20 billion that shielded the sovereign current account from the runaway goods imbalance. The Commerce Ministry noted that October services data represents provisional trade estimates, as final verified tallies from the Reserve Bank of India currently run through September.
| Trade Metric (October 2026) | Value ($ Billion) | Year-Ago Benchmark | Net Trajectory |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Exports (Goods + Services) | $89.99 B | $69.27 B | Up 29.9% YoY |
| Total Imports (Goods + Services) | $110.07 B | $94.42 B | Up 16.58% YoY |
| Overall Trade Deficit | $20.09 B | $25.15 B | Narrowed by $5.06 B |
| Merchandise Exports |
Energy remains India's primary balance-of-payments vulnerability. As the world’s third-largest oil consumer, the country relies on overseas crude for nearly 85 per cent of its domestic processing runs. Middle East geopolitical friction had sparked supply bottlenecks and inflated import invoices throughout early autumn, though an easing in benchmark Brent crude prices toward $92 a barrel offered vital breathing room to state refiners this cycle.
Market Context: Outbound resilience reflects deliberate geographical diversification by New Delhi to insulate domestic manufacturers from single-market shocks. Bilateral free trade agreements activated with the United Kingdom and New Zealand earlier this year opened preferential access channels for engineering items, chemicals, and textiles.
Policy attention now shifts to Brussels, where negotiators are finalizing terms on a landmark free trade accord with the European Union slated for formal implementation early next year.
| $49.47 B |
| $34.11 B |
| Jumped 45.06% YoY |
| Merchandise Imports | $89.35 B | $76.69 B | Up 16.51% YoY |
| Merchandise Trade Gap | $39.88 B | — | Expanded from $30.21 B in Sept |
| Estimated Services Exports | $40.51 B | $35.17 B | Up 15.18% YoY |
| Estimated Services Imports | $20.72 B | $17.73 B | Up 16.86% YoY |