OPEC members collectively pumped 3.85 million barrels per day below agreed output targets in September 2026, with Saudi Arabia alone falling short by 2.18 million barrels per day, the IEA noted.
Saudi Arabia holds roughly 3 million barrels per day of spare production capacity, vastly exceeding the United Arab Emirates’ 1 million and Kuwait’s 0.4 million, Saudi Energy said, underscoring its role as the market’s swing producer.
The kingdom has repeatedly stepped in during past crises, boosting output by 4.3 million barrels per day during the 1990 Gulf War and nearly 2 million during the 2003 Iraq War, a 2024 Energy Information Administration report highlighted.
The IEA projects global oil demand to fall by 2.5 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026, a decline that will strain markets further as inventories shrink.
In Najran, 62‑year‑old refinery worker Ahmed Al‑Said said he fears the next attack could shut down the plant he has served for 30 years, adding a human face to the crisis.
Saudi Arabia has issued a statement on Monday that it will mobilise its spare capacity if necessary, while the IEA calls for a rapid diplomatic resolution to prevent further market instability.