Dalmia Bharat Sugar & Industries led the charge, spiking 8.6% intraday before settling lower, while Balrampur Chini Mills added 2.3% to trade at ₹686.7. Dhampur Sugar was equally active, jumping 6.2% to ₹187.75, and Dwarikesh Sugar climbed 5% to ₹46.3. The sector-wide pop wasn't just noise; it tracked a 4% overnight jump in raw sugar prices, which are now up 33% year-to-date.
The driver is supply crunch. StoneX estimates a global sugar deficit of 9,00,000 tonnes for 2026-27. Thailand’s output is projected to drop 17% to below 10 million tonnes, and EU crops are down 19%. In Brazil, rain has stalled crushing, tightening near-term availability.
Domestically, the math is tight. India’s stocks stood at 36 lakh tonnes on October 1, but Dalmia Bharat’s Deputy ED Kapil Nema sees inventories settling at 50-55 lakh tonnes. He flags a 2-million-tonne gap that likely requires imports. Rains in Uttar Pradesh could cut output by another 1-2 lakh tonnes, complicating the balance sheet.
New Delhi is already moving. The government has allowed 1 million tonnes of duty-free raw sugar imports under the TRQ until October 31. Dealers face a 1,000-quintal stock limit from October 15 to November 30. Nema notes the government might also halt ethanol diversion if supplies tighten further, a move that would keep more sugar in the food chain.
The outlook hinges on refining. Nema argues the global raw sugar surplus of 2-2.5 million tonnes can offset the white sugar deficit of 1 million tonnes if refiners get the right incentives. With the new crushing season starting mid-October, watch for government import announcements and ethanol policy shifts as the next catalysts.