Brent Crude surged 2.4%, closing above $113 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate edged near $99, reflecting heightened market sentiment after recent Houthi attacks.
The jump is double the typical daily volatility for Brent, and the largest lift since early September, pushing futures higher despite a $15 dip in physical barrel prices that now sit near $120. Shipping rates have cooled, but oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are only recovering to pre‑war levels, keeping supply worries alive. Geopolitical jitters are the main catalyst: Houthis claimed responsibility for attacks on Aramco’s Yanbu port, the Shaybah field and King Fahd airport, while US President Donald Trump warned that the US has "knocked out Iran" and hinted at further strikes. A New York Times piece reports that the US and Israel are formulating plans for renewed strikes after the November 3 midterm elections. Saudi Aramco’s decision to evacuate its Dhahran headquarters and shift staff to remote work signals operational disruptions, yet the company remains under tight security. Meanwhile, Russia’s Interfax notes rising domestic gasoline and diesel production, and Ukraine’s strikes on Russian energy infrastructure add another layer of supply risk. Analysts warn that if freight rates continue to slide and physical barrel prices remain depressed, Brent could see a pullback in the coming weeks, but headline risks—geopolitical and supply chain—remain high. The next major data point will be the release of the U.S. crude inventories report on Friday, which could confirm whether the current price surge is sustained or just a temporary spike.