Shares of ITC opened at ₹256.20 on Monday, closing at ₹267.80 after a 5.0% gain, pushing the price to ₹267.80 on the NSE and BSE. Citi’s new target of ₹300 translates into a 17% upside from the previous closing price of ₹255.90.
Citi explained that the 34% year‑to‑date correction has already embedded risks linked to a potential cigarette tax hike. The brokerage estimates that roughly 75% of any tax increase is passed on via price hikes, providing a cushion for cigarette profitability.
Analysts caution that higher prices will curb consumption in the short term, but new product launches could help ITC maintain market share and mitigate down‑trading. The firm also flagged competition from illicit cigarettes and other branded alternatives as a looming threat.
Despite the volume dip, Citi projects cigarette profitability to improve sequentially through FY27. However, consensus EPS estimates for FY27 and FY28 have been trimmed by 23% and 21% respectively, reflecting broader market sentiment.
The stock sits at a 26% decline for 2026 and 33% over the past year, yet it remains in a Buy zone with 21 of 38 analysts recommending a purchase. The 12‑month consensus target hovers at ₹326.03, indicating a potential upside of roughly 21% from today’s level.