JM Financial projects NBFCs will post 35% PAT growth in July‑September 2026, a stark contrast to banks’ 12% PAT rise, according to Ajit Kumar, lead BFSI research analyst at JM Financial Institutional Securities.
The forecast hinges on the fact that 80% of NBFC lending is retail‑focused, with a large share of floating‑rate loans that can absorb rate hikes, versus banks’ larger corporate exposure that dilutes margins. Aditya Birla Capital and Piramal Enterprises each carry over 70% of their loan books at floating rates, positioning them to benefit from the current rate cycle.
Gold loan growth has surged more than 100% for NBFCs, outpacing banks’ 80‑90% increase, driven primarily by higher collateral values. The shift from personal to gold financing is a trend that could reshape the retail‑loan landscape.
Investors should monitor Q2FY27 earnings releases, the impact of rising rates on margins, and upcoming insurance commission regulation changes. JM Financial remains bullish on diversified NBFCs like Aditya Birla Capital and Piramal Enterprises, while favoring large private banks such as HDFC, ICICI, and Axis for their positioning in a rate‑up environment. The forecast is expected to lift the NIFTY NBFC index on both NSE and BSE.