Aramco’s Rabigh refinery was knocked offline Monday after a Houthi strike that damaged the plant’s inlet pipeline—cutting output by 20,000 barrels a day and sending Brent futures to $100.6 a barrel. New shipping data showed Middle‑Eastern crude exports topped pre‑war levels on four days last week, easing fears that the strike would trigger a wider supply shock.
The G7, in a meeting held in Brussels, agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves to shore up global markets. Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said the conflict had already drained 3 billion barrels from the world’s crude stocks and an additional 1 billion barrels had been withdrawn from inventories.
Yemen’s Iran‑backed Houthis claimed on Monday that they had struck Saudi sites, including King Khalid International Airport and an Aramco refinery in Rabigh. Saudi officials have yet to confirm the strikes, but the attack came amid a stalemate in US‑Iran talks and a persistent threat to the Strait of Hormuz.
Industry voices warn that the supply squeeze could last beyond the immediate crisis. Petronas CEO Tengku Muhammad Taufik warned of “bedlam” by year‑end, while ConocoPhillips’ Ryan Lance projected that global demand might not recover until 2028 or 2029, keeping the price floor for WTI near $70 a barrel.
Investors are holding their breath as the G7’s planned release of 100 million barrels next week could either cement the current price level or trigger a brief rally—an outcome that will shape the energy market’s trajectory for the next few months.