On May 28, 2026, the Asian Development Bank, OECD, S&P Global and Fitch Ratings all lifted their forecast for India's 2026 GDP growth to 7.0%–7.1%, up from 6.6%, 6.3% and 6.4% respectively. The upgrade marks the sharpest revision by OECD, which now projects 7.1% versus 6.3% in its June outlook.
The shift follows the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation’s release of a 7.8% expansion for the April‑June quarter, the strongest in a decade.
Fitch warned that despite resilience against the shock of the US‑Iran conflict and deteriorating terms of trade, growth will ease in the second half of the year. It also forecast a 25‑basis‑point rate hike as inflation climbs.
S&P highlighted robust consumption, investment and export activity as the main drivers, but cautioned that tailwinds from GST rationalisation and income‑tax cuts will fade. Weather risks from a below‑normal monsoon could dent growth.
ADB noted that strong services exports and resilient consumer spending will offset higher energy costs and a weaker monsoon, while the Middle East conflict’s impact is mitigated by diversified energy imports and consumer‑protection policies.
All four agencies expect inflation to rise due to weak monsoon and West Asian supply disruptions. The RBI is likely to hike rates at its next Monetary Policy Committee meeting in June.