Gold reclaimed the $4,100 mark in global dealing on Monday. Spot bullion climbed 0.8% to touch $4,104 an ounce, clawing back losses from last week's sharp liquidation as currency desks sold the dollar and US Treasury yields softened. On domestic screens, the yellow metal pushed back toward ₹144,000 per 10 grams—testing chart boundaries that had capped trade just days earlier.
Bullion found its footing despite blistering American macroeconomic data. The US economy generated 165,000 non-farm payrolls in October, crushing Wall Street consensus estimates of 65,000. Meanwhile, the headline jobless rate ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2%. In normal cycles, an employment beat of that magnitude would gut precious metals. This time, softer bond yields checked the slide. Fed funds futures quickly repriced, assigning nearly an 80% probability to a December interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. For non-yielding bullion, another rate hike represents a steep hurdle.
Technical indicators show domestic prices stretching into overhead resistance. "Gold has staged a strong recovery towards ₹144,000, reversing part of the recent correction and improving its immediate intraday structure," said Manav Modi, Senior Analyst for Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. Modi noted that 15-minute charts have pushed above the 20-period Bollinger Band average of ₹142,634, tagging the upper boundary near ₹143,988.
The rapid ascent leaves prices vulnerable to a pullback before any breakout can extend. Motilal Oswal pegs initial support between ₹142,600 and ₹143,000, backed by a secondary safety floor at ₹141,000 to ₹141,300. Sellers stand waiting higher up. Intraday offers are stacked heavily across the ₹144,500 to ₹145,000 corridor, followed by a secondary band of distribution between ₹145,800 and ₹146,000.
| Technical Level | Price Marker (₹) | Market Significance |
|---|---|---|
| First Resistance | ₹144,500 – ₹145,000 | Immediate selling hurdle |
| Secondary Resistance | ₹145,800 – ₹146,000 | Previous rally ceiling |
| Bollinger Band Average | ₹142,634 | Short-term intraday pivot |
| Primary Support | ₹142,600 – ₹143,000 | Critical recovery floor |
| Deep Support | ₹141,000 – ₹141,300 |
Political cross-currents are complicating the macro backdrop. Following Democratic sweeps of both chambers of Congress in the US midterm elections, institutional desks are resetting expectations around President Donald Trump's fiscal agenda. Legislative friction will likely constrain discretionary federal borrowing and defense appropriations. At the same time, tentative diplomatic overtures aimed at de-escalating the Iran conflict knocked crude oil futures lower, bleeding off some of the geopolitical panic premium that had driven bullion bids throughout October.
Yet capital preservation bids remain stubborn. Ongoing liquidations in artificial intelligence equity names have sparked margin calls across global asset managers, occasionally forcing short-term sales in bullion to cover tech shortfalls. Countering that drain, Chinese institutional accumulation and sovereign reserve demand continue to absorb metal during dips.
The market now pivots to Tuesday's US Consumer Price Index print. An upside inflation surprise will cement the Fed's December rate hike, likely sending the dollar roaring back and snuffing out bullion's bounce. A cooler number, however, will hand bulls the fuel needed to challenge ₹146,000.
| Downside target on liquidation |