Tata Power could sidestep ₹1,200 crore fixed‑cost under‑recovery, as the new Section 11 order forces captive plants to run at full capacity between Oct 1 and Dec 31. The 50‑MW threshold means the Mundra plant will now be able to pass through higher fuel costs, easing its operating margin.
Sankhe of Elara Capital estimates that around 30 GW of coal‑based captive capacity will be brought online, but the plants are currently running at 65‑70 % utilisation. The additional 5‑6 GW of generation could raise exchange volumes, even as peak demand climbs to 285‑290 GW from the current 260 GW.
Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) could see a 17‑18 % rise in trading volumes in FY24‑25 when demand grew only 3‑4 %. The order’s push for full utilisation is expected to match the spike in peak demand, further boosting power‑exchange activity.
Coal India may benefit from higher coal procurement via e‑auctions, as many captive plants will need to rebuild inventories. Renewable firms such as Adani Green and Acme Solar, with battery storage, could also ride the wave of increased evening peak demand.
Analysts at Elara Capital view the Section 11 order as a bullish catalyst for Tata Power’s earnings, but caution that the upside is limited to cost relief rather than a surge in generation output. The company’s next earnings release on 30 Nov 2026 will test the market’s appetite for the new operating regime.