Page Industries Plunges 13% as Citi Slashes Target to ₹37,300 Over FEMA Scrutiny

The selloff was swift and unforgiving. Shares of Page Industries plunged 13% in Mumbai on Thursday as institutional desks dumped stock following an anemic earnings print and fresh regulatory disclosures. The collapse erased earlier weekly gains, dragging the Jockey and Speedo manufacturer down 11% year-to-date.

Revenue rose 11.5% year-on-year to ₹1,439.6 crore for the September quarter, up from ₹1,291 crore a year earlier. But profitability barely budged. Net profit crept up just 3.8% to ₹202.5 crore from ₹195 crore, held back by higher input costs and a sluggish consumer cycle. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) rose 7.4% to ₹300.2 crore against ₹279.6 crore, while operating EBITDA margin shed 80 basis points, slipping to 20.8% from 21.6%.

Volume expanded by just 5.5%—less than half the 10% volume clip projected by institutional analysts. Management defended the performance by pointing to a delayed festive calendar, noting that shipments across July and August had expanded at 11% before running into an inventory lull in September.

Valuation Deratings Across Major Desks

Brokerage analysts stood by their long-term 'Buy' recommendations, yet slashed forward price multiples across the board. The downgrades reflect mounting anxiety over the manufacturer's second-half trajectory.

Citi delivered the sharpest blow, slashing its price target to ₹37,300 from ₹46,500. The desk trimmed revenue estimates by 2% to 3% and cut earnings per share projections by 2% to 5% through FY29. Crucially, Citi crushed Page Industries' valuation multiple to 42 times September 2028 earnings, down from an earlier 52 times June 2028 earnings.

HSBC scaled back its price target to ₹43,870 while trimming its valuation multiple to 48 times earnings. The bank clipped forward EPS projections by 1% to 3%, pointing out that the company's unchanged full-year target demands an immediate acceleration to 14% volume growth across the second half of the fiscal year.

Nomura held its price target at ₹41,000, calculating that management will need a mid-teens volume run-rate through March 2027 to protect its full-year guidance.

The ₹48 Crore FEMA Complication

Compounding the weak quarterly operating figures is an unresolved cross-border compliance inquiry. In official regulatory filings, Page Industries disclosed past procedural breaches under the Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA).

The violations involve direct-to-consumer online retail sales of imported Jockey and Speedo merchandise between 2014 and 2026 without corresponding physical retail store networks. The underlying value of the trade stands at ₹48 crore.

Page Industries filed a compounding application with the Reserve Bank of India on May 20, 2026 to resolve the lapse. Yet the banking regulator returned the petition on October 16, 2026, directing the apparel firm to secure post-facto government clearance before the RBI can formalize a compounding order.

In response to the scrutiny, the company has restricted digital sales of imported Jockey inventory. It also dismantled direct-to-consumer operations for Speedo, rerouting retail fulfillment through third-party franchise partners.

Nomura observed that statutory penalties under the foreign exchange statute could legally scale from 0.75 times up to three times the underlying trade value—representing an exposure between ₹36 crore and ₹144 crore. However, the brokerage emphasized that Indian regulators hold virtually no precedent for imposing a maximum three-times penalty in comparable circumstances, with management signaling that ultimate financial damage will likely prove negligible.

Market Context: Page Industries has traded at a rich scarcity premium for over a decade, frequently commanding multiples above 50 times forward earnings. When volume expansion skids to mid-single digits and regulatory inquiries return from the central bank unapproved, institutional capital swiftly reprices that premium.

The board now faces a compressed timeline. Company executives must secure post-facto ministerial clearance to resubmit the RBI compounding application, while simultaneously lifting retail shipments to a 14% growth pace in the December quarter to avert a broader multi-year derating.