New Constructs, an independent financial research provider, has branded Anthropic's upcoming initial public offering the "most ridiculous IPO of 2026." The firm pegs the AI giant's value at a mere $150 billion, a stark 92% discount to the $2 trillion valuation the company is seeking for its Wall Street debut.
The math behind the bearish call is blunt. To justify a $2 trillion market cap, Anthropic would need to record double the trailing year profit of Nvidia, the world's most valuable company with a market cap close to $6 trillion. Nvidia's net profit over the last four quarters totaled nearly $190 billion. Anthropic, by contrast, reported a net operating loss of over $8 billion in 2025, with overall losses soaring to $42 billion, according to a leaked prospectus reported by Reuters last month.
"We don't think Anthropic has a viable business," New Constructs wrote in its note, citing mounting operating losses and competition from open-source models. The firm argued that closed models will struggle to generate profits in the current landscape.
David Trainer, founder and CEO of New Constructs, has a track record as a prominent IPO bear. He famously called WeWork the "most ridiculous IPO of 2019," a label that preceded the company's bankruptcy filing in 2023. He also warned against the Allbirds IPO in 2021, which later sold its assets for just $39 million.
Trainer acknowledged in a 2021 CNBC interview that his firm "doesn't always get it right," noting DoorDash, which he initially panned, now commands an $83 billion market cap. But for Anthropic, he warns the IPO is less about creating wealth for public investors and more about providing liquidity for Wall Street backers.