India's services exports surged 14% YoY, eclipsing the 12% consensus from Bloomberg Intelligence, indicating strong demand across IT and consulting.
Remittances from overseas Indians added an estimated $50bn to the balance of payments, bolstering the country's ability to offset increasing oil costs.
Oil prices are projected to hover between $100-$105, pushing the import bill up by $55-60bn—an addition that could reach $70-75bn when other commodities are factored in.
Mishra cautions that the rupee may not need a sharp devaluation, allowing exporters to repatriate earnings while importers reduce hedging.
The AI wave may not dent IT services as feared; software firms may pivot, but services providers will need to adapt business models.
Looking ahead, the World Bank recommends a review of capital gains tax on foreign institutional investors, with a focus on sustaining the services growth trajectory.