Xpheno’s latest data shows 12,700 tech workers have moved back to India since January, up from 9,800 in 2024 and 7,200 in 2023. The count already rivals the 2025 record of 15,100 and is projected to exceed it before year‑end.
The trend is steady: 14,500 professionals crossed from India to the U.S. in the same period, yet the inbound number is narrowing the gap. Net migration still favors the U.S., but the margin shrinks with each year.
Kamal Karanth, Xpheno co‑founder, said the tightening of H‑1B rules under the Trump administration and recent layoffs at firms like Google and Microsoft have pushed talent home. He added that the new visa restrictions could accelerate the shift, potentially turning India into a net importer of tech talent.
Pay disparity is a major drag. A full‑stack engineer on an H‑1B earns an average of $105,000, while comparable Indian specialists in the top 1% earn between $20,000 and $32,000 annually. Many returnees are forced to accept 25% to 33% of their former U.S. salaries.
Hiring remains selective. Neeti Sharma, CEO of TeamLease Digital, noted that Indian firms now prioritize niche AI, ML, data, and product leadership skills over overseas experience alone. The sector’s hiring momentum stalled after the 2021 boom, leaving many returnees without suitable roles.
If the current trajectory persists, India could see a net gain in U.S. tech talent by year‑end, forcing employers to rethink compensation structures and possibly prompting policy shifts to retain high‑skill workers.