The RBI is poised to raise its repo rate to 5.5%, a 25‑basis‑point increase that marks the first hike after four steady meetings at 5.25%. According to a CNBC‑TV18 poll, every respondent—100%—agreed on a 25‑bps rise, underscoring near‑unanimous confidence that the central bank will finally act on mounting inflationary pressures.
60% of poll participants foresee the Monetary Policy Committee retaining a neutral stance, while 30% predict a shift toward withdrawing accommodation. A further 10% expect the RBI to keep the status quo but tweak its language to hint at potential tightening.
Looking beyond the immediate move, 60% of respondents project cumulative hikes of 50 basis points this cycle, 30% see 75 basis points, and 10% anticipate a full 100‑basis‑point tightening. The consensus points to a December policy meeting as the likely venue for the next rate adjustment.
Growth and inflation forecasts are split: half predict the RBI will lift its FY27 GDP forecast to 6.8‑7%, the other half to 7‑7.2%. Inflation expectations have risen sharply, with 80% forecasting a jump to a 5.1‑5.4% range, reflecting higher crude prices and regional weather risks.
Liquidity management remains a priority. Half of the respondents expect the RBI to keep using Variable Rate Reverse Repo operations to mop up excess cash. Roughly 30% foresee no new measures, 10% anticipate additional open‑market sales, and another 10% see a hike in the Cash Reserve Ratio.
Traders will watch Governor Sanjay Malhotra’s commentary for clues on the pace and breadth of future tightening. The banking sector, meanwhile, should brace for tighter funding conditions as the RBI signals that policy will remain data‑driven and cautious.