The November 3 midterm elections are already a proving ground for candidates eyeing the 2028 presidential contest. In 2024, Gavin Newsom spent weeks touring Alabama, Mississippi, North Carolina, and South Carolina, meeting with state party leaders and African‑American voters. The governor’s focus on the South could strengthen his ties to a crucial Democratic base while bolstering his fundraising network in Nevada and New Hampshire.
Newsom’s most ambitious bet is backing California’s Proposition 50, a redistricting map that could give Democrats up to five extra House seats. He said the measure “will reshape the political landscape” and that a win would cement his role in the battle against Republican‑led gerrymandering in Texas. A loss would undermine that narrative and complicate his post‑governorship plans.
Vice‑President JD Vance has been on a relentless tour of the Midwest, South and Alaska, touting Trump‑era policies and rallying anti‑fraud supporters. He told a mid‑western rally that his priority remains helping Republicans win the midterms, not his own 2028 bid. Yet his campaign schedule signals a strategic push to keep his name top‑of‑mind for the next presidential cycle.
In Pennsylvania, Gov. Josh Shapiro opted to stay home, confident he would secure re‑election against state treasurer Stacy Garrity. He said his focus is on winning state‑legislative control and expanding Democratic House representation, especially in working‑class counties like Beaver, Luzerne and Erie. The governor’s strategy reflects Pennsylvania’s status as a swing state that could tip the national balance.
Kentucky’s Andy Beshear, chair of the Democratic Governors Association, is expanding his visibility by touring Nevada, Idaho and other battlegrounds. He announced a get‑out‑the‑vote drive that will target Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona, while also injecting a million dollars into Texas gubernatorial hopeful Gina Hinojosa. Beshear’s dual role as governor and party leader positions him as a key influencer for the 2028 race.
Texas Senator Ted Cruz is pouring more than $2.4 million into midterm ads through his Truth and Courage PAC, targeting Senate candidate Ken Paxton. He said the spending will “strengthen our coalition” and keep his name in the conversation for the next presidential election. Cruz’s investment signals a broader strategy to consolidate Republican power ahead of 2028.
As the midterms unfold, the performance of each candidate will set the tone for the 2028 primary field. The next week, Newsom’s campaign will eye the results of the California redistricting vote, while Vance’s team will monitor turnout in Ohio and Alaska. The outcomes will dictate the momentum and funding streams that feed into the next presidential cycle.