The bulletin issued on September 15 records 19 cm of rain in Anjar, Kutch, with Vallabhipur, Bhavnagar and Malhargarh, Mandsaur each receiving 15 cm, and several stations in Gujarat and Tamil Nadu topping 13 cm.
IMD flagged a red alert for isolated extremely heavy rain in Saurashtra & Kutch and placed Kutch, Morbi, Rajkot and Surendranagar under a flash‑flood watch until 11:30 IST on September 16, citing saturated soils and low‑lying exposure.
The department’s technical note explains that the western end of the monsoon trough has slipped south of its normal position, signalling a favourable but not yet declared withdrawal from West Rajasthan around September 19, while East Rajasthan’s Kotda still logged 9 cm.
Meanwhile, Kerala, Mahe, Lakshadweep and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands are slated for widespread rain through September 21, with the Andamans facing very heavy showers on September 18—illustrating a regional, staggered shift rather than a national cut‑off.
IMD cautions that forecast accuracy wanes with longer lead times and that a fresh western disturbance could alter the withdrawal trajectory, keeping forecasters and residents on high alert across the country.