Wheat, sugar and vegetable oils pushed the Food Price Index higher in September, while meat and dairy slipped, according to FAO data released Monday.
El Nino‑related weather fears and a war‑driven collapse of Black Sea shipping routes have amplified cost pressures, pushing sugar to an 18‑month high and wheat futures to a three‑year peak at the beginning of the month.
FAO chief economist Maximo Torero warned that persistent disruptions across the Strait of Hormuz and Black Sea, combined with climate shocks, could soon translate into higher consumer prices, especially in countries dependent on food imports.
The organisation kept its 2026 cereal production forecast at 2.979 billion tonnes, a 2.1% drop from the previous record, but cut its 2026/27 world cereal trade outlook by 0.7% due to constrained Black Sea shipping.
Analysts now expect the price climb to erode household purchasing power, prompting governments to consider subsidies or tariff adjustments ahead of the next FAO review scheduled for October.