Since the navigation season opened in July, Moscow has dispatched almost 20 million barrels of crude via the Northern Sea Route, eclipsing the 13 million barrels that traversed the corridor during the entire 2025 season.
The surge comes as traditional corridors have been rattled by Suez Canal bottlenecks, Iranian‑linked strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, and Ukrainian hostilities in the Black Sea, forcing Asian refiners to seek shorter, if riskier, alternatives.
For Russia, the route also offers a strategic bypass of European waters where tankers have faced repeated seizures this year, while the Arctic’s icebreakers keep the channel open despite higher operating costs.
India, the world’s top buyer of Russian crude in September, saw imports fall 29 percent from July as Chinese refiners stepped up purchases; the NSR’s direct path to northern China could intensify competition for Russian supply.
Gazprom Neft’s chief executive Alexander Dyukov announced a 35 percent increase in NSR shipments this year, and President Vladimir Putin has set a target of 70 million metric tonnes of cargo turnover through the route by the decade’s end.
Traders now project an additional 5–10 million barrels before the season concludes, underscoring Russia’s intent to cement the Arctic as a key artery for its oil exports amid global shipping turbulence.