Molbio Diagnostics slipped 2.8% to ₹1,272 on Tuesday, after Jefferies launched a buy rating with a ₹1,600 price target, implying a 27% upside from the current level.
Since its August 17 listing, the stock has doubled from its issue price, peaked at ₹1,686 on September 11, then retraced 25% in 11 sessions. The recent dip leaves it 17% up on the month.
Jefferies projects a 22% CAGR in revenue through 2029, driven by TrueNat, which accounted for 86% of FY26 sales and generated $130 m, versus GeneXpert’s $3 bn scale. The firm also plans to roll out Prorad X‑ray and Optrascan digital pathology in the US.
Margins are set to widen by 830 basis points, with test‑kit utilization rising from 58% to 77% by FY29. EBITDA is expected to grow at 45% CAGR, and profit after tax at 47% CAGR, while employee costs shrink to 8% of sales.
Jefferies flags revenue concentration risk, noting 80% of FY26 sales came from the B2G segment and 70% from TB testing. In an upside scenario, a ₹1,970 target would push upside to 57%, with 25% revenue CAGR and 45% EBITDA CAGR.
Guidance for the next quarter remains unchanged; the firm will report FY27 results on 30th October, where analysts will gauge the pace of TrueNat adoption and margin expansion.