Jefferies' latest earnings outlook, released Tuesday, signals that India’s real GDP is expected to climb 6.5–7% in the current fiscal, while nominal growth sits around 11–12%. The brokerage also projects corporate earnings to accelerate to 17% in the fiscal year beginning April 2027, up from an estimated 14% this year.
Bank credit surged 19.1% YoY as of August’s end, and corporate lending grew 21.6% in July, with loans to micro, small and medium enterprises climbing 24.9%. Deposit growth of 17.8% in August helped fuel the surge, a sign that recent GST and labor reforms are starting to pay off.
Domestic demand remains firm: GST receipts rose 14.8% YoY in August, power demand grew 9.4% during April–August versus 1.8% in the first quarter, and residential real‑estate sales in the top seven cities jumped 7% YoY in the first seven months of 2026.
Energy risks stay sharp; Brent crude hovered around $106 a barrel, and Middle East tensions keep oil routes in flux. India has avoided major supply shocks by buying discounted Russian crude and increasing U.S. imports, but the RBI is poised to raise the repo rate by 50 basis points by the end of 2026.
With earnings growth set to outpace GDP, market watchers anticipate a tighter monetary stance, while investors eye corporate filings ahead of the next fiscal year. The RBI’s upcoming policy meeting will likely confirm the rate hike trajectory.