Brent crude sits at $105 a barrel, a figure that echoes the current risk‑laden environment in the Gulf. Meanwhile West Texas Intermediate hovers between $92 and $93, widening the benchmark spread.
The divergence stems from higher insurance premiums and freight costs for vessels navigating the Persian Gulf, a region still shadowed by the Saudi‑Houthi skirmishes. Radoglia notes that cargoes now bear significantly elevated insurance rates, amplifying the cost of oil delivery.
Oil flows through the Gulf have recovered to more than 95% of pre‑war levels, according to Vortexa and Kpler tracking data. Yet the price‑pressure persists because the supply chain remains vulnerable to sudden disruptions.
Volatility, once hovering near 100% during the peak of the conflict, has fallen to about 48%. This decline signals a relative calm in market swings, even as the underlying price stays elevated.
Looking ahead, Radoglia estimates that if hostilities continue, Brent could rise by roughly $1 to $1.50 per week. A sudden escalation or new attacks on energy infrastructure would likely shift this trajectory upward further.