Kotak Mahindra AMC’s managing director, Nilesh Shah, told CNBC‑TV18 that India’s GDP is poised for 7% plus growth this year, but sustaining that pace next year hinges on a drop in oil prices—
Shah flagged a 12% monsoon deficit and a return of oil prices to triple digits as twin headwinds. Supply‑chain jolts add further strain, pushing the RBI to keep a close eye on inflation, which remains below its upper target band—
The capital markets have felt the pull of $50 billion in IPO, QIP and OFS issuances over the past three years, while foreign portfolio investors have sold ₹2.5 trillion this calendar year. Shah described the scene as a mix of mid‑cap euphoria and FPI apathy, underscoring a sector‑wide liquidity squeeze—
Given the inflation backdrop, Shah warned that interest rates could rise, tightening market liquidity further. He noted that earnings are robust, yet the supply side remains heavy, creating a precarious outlook for large‑cap stocks—
Looking ahead, Kotak Mahindra AMC urges investors to adopt a bottom‑up approach. The firm stresses that lower oil prices are essential to preserve the 7% growth trajectory, and that the next quarterly guidance will hinge on energy market dynamics.