Global crude benchmarks retreated on Monday after US President Donald Trump signaled that Washington would likely hold back fresh military strikes against Iran if ongoing negotiations yield a concrete pact.
Brent crude futures fell 52 cents, or 0.53%, to $97.80 a barrel after briefly shedding more than $1 during early trade. Across the Atlantic, US West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 15 cents, or 0.17%, to $90.68 a barrel. The retreat cooled speculative war-risk premiums, though commercial vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz faced continued disruption.
| Benchmark / Metric | Price / Level | Net Change | Percentage Shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude Futures | $97.80 / barrel | -$0.52 | -0.53% |
| West Texas Intermediate (WTI) | $90.68 / barrel | -$0.15 | -0.17% |
| Q2 Global Refinery Input Drop | 4.8M b/d | -6.0% | Multi-quarter low |
| China Q2 Processing Drop | 2.1M b/d | — | Largest single-nation decline |
"It depends on whether or not they sign a very strong agreement," Trump said in a telephone interview with CNN, repeating five separate times that renewed military intervention remained unnecessary if Tehran delivered tangible progress on its nuclear programme and reopened safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Yet the White House matched diplomatic overtures with explicit military threats. Washington has already mapped out 38 key Iranian bridges that American forces could destroy within 60 minutes if diplomatic talks collapse, Trump warned.
We have 38 bridges in our site that we can knock down in literally one hour. They’ll all be down.
Donald Trump, US President
Energy markets remain tightly wound after an eight-month chokehold along the Strait of Hormuz crippled tanker routes and forced widespread refinery slowdowns across Asia.
Global refinery activity plummeted during the second quarter of 2026 as the Middle East conflict escalated, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration. Tracking figures compiled by energy intelligence firm Kpler show global refinery inputs tumbled by 4.8 million barrels per day—a 6% contraction—between April and June. Processing runs recovered by 1.8 million barrels per day in the third quarter as plants reconfigured logistics and tapped costlier alternative routes.
East Asian importing economies bore the brunt of the maritime blockade. China absorbed the sharpest hit, slashing refinery runs by 2.1 million barrels per day in the second quarter and another 800,000 barrels per day in the third quarter. India, South Korea, and Japan logged a collective decline topping 1 million barrels per day through the second quarter before clawing back 800,000 barrels per day in the subsequent quarter.
Traders and refiners now await formal terms from Tehran and Washington on maritime security guarantees, with spot oil prices tethered directly to whether diplomatic corridors can restore open transit through the Persian Gulf.