SOPA’s first estimate for the 2026 Kharif season shows India’s soybean output falling to 107.93 lakh tonnes, a 2.1% dip from 110.26 lakh tonnes last year, even as the sown area swells to 117.73 lakh hectares from 112.14 lakh hectares.
The contraction stems mainly from Maharashtra, Karnataka and Telangana, where drought has decimated yields. Maharashtra is projected to see a 33.2% slump to 34.88 lakh tonnes from 52.23 lakh, while Karnataka’s crop will shrink 43.6% to 2.06 lakh tonnes, and Telangana will drop 46.1% to 0.68 lakh tonnes.
In contrast, Madhya Pradesh, the nation’s top soybean producer, is expected to lift output by 32.2% to 57.16 lakh tonnes, and Rajasthan will see a 48.2% jump to 9.47 lakh tonnes, partially cushioning the national shortfall.
Drought conditions, measured by the Combined Drought Indicator, have left 305 of Maharashtra’s 358 talukas, 226 of Karnataka’s 240 taluks and 315 of Telangana’s 621 mandals under severe stress as of mid‑October, according to state drought declarations.
The 5% rise in sown area that failed to translate into yield underscores a looming supply squeeze that could push soybean prices higher and strain the country’s feedstock supply for poultry and livestock.
In response, the Ministry of Agriculture will convene a drought‑mitigation task force with state officials by 25 October to formulate adaptive measures and support affected growers.