Deven Choksey, Managing Director of DRChoksey Finserv, argues that the recent MDR framework will finally unlock cash for payment aggregators that have been bottling up infrastructure spend for years. The framework mandates a fixed MDR for merchants, turning what had been a cost centre into a revenue source for aggregators.
Choksey estimates that CCAvenue alone could see ₹80‑110 crore of incremental revenue this quarter. With its infrastructure costs already sunk, the bulk of that figure is expected to filter straight into operating profit, potentially nudging the gross margin up by 1‑2 points.
Paytm and Pine Labs, Choksey notes, are poised to capture sizeable shares of the new revenue pool. Across the ecosystem, banks could unlock an estimated ₹16‑20 trn in MDR‑driven income, although acquiring banks will likely use the cash to recoup their own set‑up costs.
When asked to name a stock to watch, Choksey pointed to AvenuesAI, citing its current earnings calculations as a clear catalyst for upside. He added Paytm remains a close contender, given its dominant merchant base and infrastructure head‑count.
Large‑cap weakness, according to Choksey, stems from a dearth of institutional buying and aggressive shorting in derivatives. He warned that unless a large‑fund influx materialises, the trend could persist.
Choksey dismissed the notion that a slowdown in global AI spend would derail Indian IT services, instead drawing a parallel to the early internet era. He believes AI will carve new business avenues rather than replace existing services.
Solar Industries’ recent acquisition, while initially met with a dip in share price, is viewed by Choksey as a long‑term strategic win. The deal should add revenue and EBITDA over time, though investors may need to wait for valuations to stabilise before committing.
In sum, the MDR framework is a clear revenue catalyst for payment aggregators. While the exact impact will materialise in the next earnings cycle, market participants are watching the quarter‑end numbers closely for confirmation.