IMD logged 759.4 mm of rain between June and September, 12.6 % shy of the 868.6 mm long‑term average. With a season‑average of 87 % of the long‑period average, 2026 ranks as the fourth‑lowest monsoon since 2001 and the thirteenth lowest since 1901.
Northwest India received 94 % of its long‑period average, while the centre stood at 97 %. The south peninsula lagged at 76 %, and eastern and northeastern regions trailed at 74 %. East and northeast India recorded 1,016.3 mm, the lowest seasonal total since 1901; the south peninsula logged 542 mm, its fourth‑lowest season on record. Of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, 17 saw deficient rainfall, 18 normal, and Odisha experienced excess.
Weak El Nino conditions emerged in June and strengthened steadily, reaching strong intensity by the end of September. The Indian Ocean Dipole remained neutral throughout, despite forecasts of a positive phase. Historical data shows other El Nino years—1972, 2002, 2015—also produced deficits, with 22.3 %, 20.9 %, and 12.7 % below normal respectively.
IMD warned that the deficit crosses the rainfall‑deficiency threshold defining an all‑India drought year, triggering a formal drought designation. The Ministry of Agriculture will intensify monitoring of water resources and irrigation systems to mitigate the impact.
Water shortages loom over farmers in the plains, with irrigation projects stalled and crop yields at risk. The government’s heightened vigilance aims to cushion the agricultural sector from the seasonal shock.