Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, cautioned on Monday that the war in the Middle East, which erupted in late February, could keep global oil prices hovering around $120 a barrel well past the conflict’s end.
Birol said the conflict has “upended expectations of a surplus” in energy markets this year, tightening supplies and driving benchmarks to levels 59% above pre‑war prices, with Brent crude spiking to $117 during a recent Houthi attack on Saudi infrastructure.
He added that the IEA does not foresee a return to pre‑war market conditions until 2027, citing ongoing supply disruptions and the possibility of further geopolitical shocks.
The chief also warned that winter will exacerbate shortages, as European diesel demand rises and several refineries undergo maintenance, potentially choking fuel supplies for heating in the West.
Europe’s gas situation compounds the problem, with countries cutting Russian imports and the Iran war disrupting exports from Qatar and the UAE, tightening an already strained market.
Birol noted a surge in nuclear construction—90 GW under development—the highest in four decades, suggesting a “strong comeback” for the sector amid the crisis.
He called on governments and businesses to elevate energy security to a top priority while planning for a protracted period of uncertainty, with the next step being the implementation of national resilience strategies by the end of 2026.