The shares of Balrampur Chini Mills have leapt 60% since the start of the year and 79% from their 52‑week low, yet Prashant Biyani, Vice President of Institutional Equity at Elara Securities, sees a further 30% upside over the next two years.
India’s sugar market is grappling with a supply deficit that Biyani says could persist for at least a year. Raw sugar prices are currently ₹51‑₹55, 15‑20% higher YoY, but the analyst expects a month‑on‑month moderation as the new crushing season ramps up.
The company’s upcoming polylactic acid project, slated for launch in December, adds a diversification layer that could cushion the impact of price swings. Volume forecasts for the July‑September 2026 quarter are 12% higher than the previous quarter, while price realisations are projected to rise 14‑15%.
State elections in Uttar Pradesh are likely to keep prices contained; any sudden spike above ₹50 would probably trigger government intervention to cap costs, a scenario Biyani says mills can absorb without hurting profitability.
Looking ahead, the sector is poised for a cyclical uptrend. Volume and realisation growth are expected to repeat in the October‑December 2026 quarter, setting the stage for robust financial results that could validate the 30% upside thesis.
Investors should note that the current 60% YTD rally has already priced in substantial upside, so the target implied by a 30% gain sits above the current trading levels, providing a concrete benchmark for short‑term traders and long‑term holders alike.