World shipping rates surged 130% between February and October 2026, jumping from about $2,200 to $4,250 per container, as Middle East tensions tightened routes.
The spike reverses a decade‑long trend of falling freight costs that began after a 2024 rate shock and eased through 2025 and early 2026.
India’s container trade defied the trend, trading a 23% year‑on‑year rise in September 2026, with exports up 22% and imports up 23%, according to Jefferies.
Port volumes across India mixed: major ports grew 13% y/y, while non‑major ports slipped 1%. Gujarat saw 3% growth, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu 6‑7%, but the east coast fell sharply.
Jefferies warns that shipping lines may soon resume Suez Canal transit despite ongoing regional tensions, a shift that could recalibrate global freight pricing.
Industry observers say the decision will be announced at the forthcoming International Maritime Organization meeting in December, with implications for global supply chains.