India’s push toward 5G is hitting a hard wall of consumer wallets. Counterpoint Research data shows 4G smartphone shipments are set to grow 3% in 2026, a stark contrast to the overall market, which contracted 11% in the June quarter. The 4G share of total shipments is climbing from 11% in 2025 to 13% this year, with projections hitting 15% by 2027.
The driver is simple math. Memory and component costs have spiked, forcing price hikes that have stalled demand. Sumit Singh, SVP and head of products at Lava International, told TOI that building a 5G phone under Rs 15,000 without compromising the user experience has become "extremely challenging." Buyers aren't refusing connectivity; they are refusing the price tag attached to it.
The mid-market is where the battle is shifting. In the Rs 10,000-20,000 band, the number of makers offering 4G models jumped from just two in 2025 to twelve this year. Prachir Singh, senior analyst at Counterpoint, noted that this recovery is moving beyond entry-level devices. Brands like Xiaomi, Infinix, and Realme have all launched 4G options, acknowledging that consumers want better specs and build quality rather than a 5G badge they can't afford.
Tarun Pathak, Counterpoint research director, warns this isn't just a temporary blip. Component costs are unlikely to normalize quickly, making 4G a viable, long-term value proposition. For now, the 5G mandate is colliding with purchasing power, and the phone in your hand is likely going to stay on the older network.