A recent poll of 12 economists published by the Times of India shows that a majority anticipate the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee will hike the repo rate by 25 basis points in October.
The RBI last raised rates in February 2023 to counter a post‑pandemic inflation surge, after which it has eased policy between February and December 2025.
Inflation is projected to run about 20 basis points above the RBI's 4.7% forecast in the second quarter, prompting several economists to call for a sharper tightening cycle.
Kotak Mahindra Bank’s chief economist Upasana Bhardwaj noted the gap, while SBI’s Soumya Kanti Ghosh warned that inflation is becoming generalized.
Crisil’s D K Joshi and IDFC First Bank’s Gaura Sengupta echoed the need for a 25‑basis‑point lift in October and December, citing rising energy prices that could push rates higher.
The Monetary Policy Committee will convene on 22 October, after which it may decide to pause or continue the hike cycle depending on liquidity and bond‑yield data.