After 90% of ballots were counted, Israel’s Joint List and United Arab List are poised to capture 19 seats in the 120‑member Knesset, a record for any Arab bloc.
The 80% turnout among Arab voters, according to Channel 12, eclipsed the 77.7% national average and surpassed figures from the 2019 election, where Arab towns like Umm al-Fahm saw participation rates above 70%.
Arab citizens make up roughly 21% of Israel’s 10.24‑million population, comprising Muslims, Christians and Druze. Their long‑standing grievances over discrimination and separate settlements have kept many from voting, making this surge politically significant. In Nazareth, a single mother with two children said the turnout meant their voices finally mattered.
The Joint List, a left‑wing coalition, is expected to secure 12 seats, while the socially conservative Ra’am could win seven, positioning the bloc as a kingmaker. Netanyahu, who governs a far‑right coalition, cannot risk aligning with Arab leaders, while opposition figure Gadi Eisenkot’s bloc, which captured 48 seats, has yet to commit to a partnership.
Israel’s open‑list proportional system treats the country as a single constituency; parties must cross a 3.25% threshold to gain seats. Unity is critical, as the 2022 Balad vote fell just short of the threshold, leaving 2.9% of ballots unrepresented.
With coalition negotiations slated to begin within days, Netanyahu faces a choice: bring the Arab bloc into the government or risk a stalemate that could trigger another election.