Stop staring at the odometer’s first digit. It’s a trap. A new study from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and UT Austin analyzed 4.8 million Texas used-car transactions from 2014 to 2021 and found a glaring pattern: cars sitting just below a round number—49,900 miles instead of 50,000—sell for significantly more.
The gap is negligible. We’re talking a hundred miles. But dealers know that your brain treats '49,9xx' as a completely different category than '50,0xx'. It’s the same psychological hook that makes $1.99 feel cheaper than $2.00. The researchers, Andreas Kraft and Raghunath Singh Rao, call this 'behavioral skimming.' They calculated that dealers pocket an extra $46 to $168 per sale simply because the mileage number looks 'better' to a distracted buyer.
This isn't just about perception; it’s about market mechanics. You might think competition between dealers would erase this margin. It doesn’t. The study shows that because most buyers aren’t closely comparing the last three digits of the odometer, the pricing advantage persists. Dealers aren't just selling you a car; they're selling you the illusion of a better deal.
So, what does this mean for you? Mileage still matters, but not in the way you think. A car with 49,950 miles isn't mechanically superior to one with 50,050 miles. The wear and tear are virtually identical. Focus on the service history, the accident report, and the actual condition of the engine. Ignore the vanity numbers.
Next time you’re shopping, look past the threshold. If a dealer is pushing a car at 9,900 miles over a 10,000-mile model, ask yourself: am I paying for the car, or for the number? The data says you’re likely paying for the number. Save your money for maintenance, not marketing.